Revenue and contribution LTV

Customer Lifetime Value Calculator

Estimate customer lifetime value from order economics and a defensible lifespan assumption, then test how one change affects the margin-adjusted result.

Runs locally in your browser. This is a planning estimate, not a customer-level forecast.

Contribution lifetime value

$561.00

Margin-adjusted estimate

Revenue LTV

$1,020.00

Annual revenue / customer

$340.00

Estimated lifespan

3 years

Lifetime orders

Formula shown

$85.00 × 4 / year × 3 years = $1,020.00 revenue LTV

$1,020.00 × 55% margin = $561.00 contribution LTV

Contribution LTV:CAC

3.74×

Uses contribution LTV divided by the optional acquisition cost. It does not include payback timing or overhead.

One-variable sensitivity

Each row changes one assumption and holds the rest constant.

AOV +10%

$617.10 (+$56.10)

Purchase frequency +10%

$617.10 (+$56.10)

Gross margin +10 points

$663.00 (+$102.00)

Customer lifespan +10%

$617.10 (+$56.10)

The churn model uses expected months ≈ 1 ÷ monthly churn. It assumes a stable churn rate and does not model cohort curves, discounting, expansion, refunds, taxes, support, or overhead.

Selectable model

Use the lifetime assumption your data supports

Both modes start with annual revenue per customer: average order value multiplied by purchases per customer per year. They differ only in how customer lifespan is supplied.

Observed-lifespan model

AOV × purchases/year × lifespan

Use a measured average lifespan from comparable, mature cohorts. This is usually clearer for transactional businesses and whenever reliable cohort history exists.

Churn-derived approximation

lifespan years ≈ 1 ÷ monthly churn ÷ 12

For a stable recurring model, reciprocal monthly churn provides an expected-lifetime approximation. It becomes fragile when churn changes by tenure, season, plan, or cohort.

Know which value you are using

Revenue LTV is not contribution LTV

The page reports both figures so acquisition and retention decisions do not silently use top-line revenue as spendable value.

Revenue LTV

Average order value × annual purchase frequency × estimated lifespan. It represents modeled top-line revenue before costs.

Contribution LTV

Revenue LTV × gross margin. It accounts for cost of goods sold but is not net profit and excludes overhead, support, taxes, and financing.

Contribution LTV:CAC

Contribution LTV divided by optional customer acquisition cost. Read it beside payback time, cash flow, retention risk, and operating costs.

Cohort-based CLV

A deeper model can use survival curves, changing margin, expansion, discounting, and segment-level behavior. This calculator intentionally does not simulate those effects.

One variable at a time

Treat sensitivity as a question, not a forecast

The result panel changes one assumption while holding every other input constant. Use the largest delta to identify which estimate deserves better data or a focused experiment.

Order value

A higher AOV raises revenue and contribution LTV linearly only if purchase frequency, lifespan, and margin stay unchanged.

Purchase frequency

More purchases per year raise the model linearly, but discounts or fatigue may change margin and retention in practice.

Gross margin

The scenario adds percentage points and caps margin at 100%. It does not assume operating expenses improve.

Longevity

Observed mode increases lifespan. Churn mode reduces the monthly churn assumption, which changes reciprocal expected lifespan nonlinearly.

CLV questions